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2025-04-042025-04-041111100
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the rise of scapegoat economics in the intelligent age

The World Economic Forum's annual meeting focused on "Collaboration for the Intelligent Age," with UBS Global Wealth Management chief economist Paul Donovan discussing the risks of "scapegoat economics." The event highlighted the importance of collaboration in addressing economic challenges and fostering innovation. Additionally, various UBS reports explored billionaire wealth, investment strategies, and the impact of economic barriers, particularly for women.
Monocle
CHE Paul Donovan Mark Haefele
Finance & Economy, Transcript
01:01 27.01.2025

trade taxes and economic growth insights from recent global developments

US Treasury Secretary-nominee Bessent faced scrutiny during confirmation hearings, particularly regarding his views on trade taxes and currency appreciation, which lack recent evidence support. Meanwhile, China's reported 2024 GDP growth of 5% aligns with its target, though analysts suggest the figures may be inflated. In the UK, December retail sales showed weak food store performance, contrasting with strength in other sectors, indicating consumer behavior may not be as cautious as expected.
US Treasury Secretary-nominee Bessent is a more orthodox cabinet nominee. Yesterday’s confirmation hearings saw generally articulate answers. The responses on trade taxes were troubling. Bessent’s idea that an appreciating currency offsets tariffs is not supported by recent evidence. The idea that US workers will not pay trade taxes is wrong. As he’s an intelligent individual, these views may reflect the beliefs of the incoming administration, not Bessent’s understanding.
Chinese Yuan British Pound Sterling Euro United States Dollar Paul Donovan Scott Bessent
Finance & Economy, Market Report
11:03 17.01.2025

benign inflation raises questions about consumer spending and economic growth

US consumer price inflation data showed benign trends, with durable goods prices declining, enhancing consumer spending power. Retail sales data is anticipated, reflecting stronger-than-expected spending as rising real incomes encourage consumers to spend. Meanwhile, UK GDP remains volatile, and German inflation data was unremarkable. Confirmation hearings for US Treasury Secretary-nominee Bessent may influence trade tax policy perceptions.
Yesterday’s US consumer price inflation data was benign. Consumer durable goods prices fell for a majority of the Biden administration. Although consumers do not focus on such prices when considering inflation, this deflation did boost consumer spending power. The abrupt market response reflects the problem with Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s “data dependency” mantra: any data release (however dodgy) prompts an extreme market response.
United States Dollar Apple Inc. GBR DEU USA Jerome Powell Paul Donovan Scott Bessent Show more
Finance & Economy, Market Report
09:57 16.01.2025

Inflation Trends and Economic Policies Shape December Market Outlook

US December consumer price inflation is expected to show modest gains, with a significant rise in egg prices due to a supply shock. President-elect Trump plans to create an "External Revenue Service" to collect tariffs and duties, indicating a shift in trade policy. Meanwhile, UK inflation data fell short of expectations, primarily driven by housing costs, suggesting that negative perceptions may stem more from government policy than economic conditions.
US December consumer price inflation should show modest headline gains. It is worth distinguishing inflation pressures and relative price changes. Egg prices are likely to rise sharply—egg producer prices rose 127.9% y/y in December. This is a supply shock. Unless Federal Reserve Chair Powell becomes a chicken farmer, they can do nothing about this.
British Pound Sterling Euro United States Dollar Apple Inc. Oxford Industries, Inc. GBR ESP USA Paul Donovan Show more
Finance & Economy, Market Report
09:24 15.01.2025

US trade taxes may rise gradually impacting inflation and competition dynamics

Markets are reacting to reports of gradual trade taxes in the US, reminiscent of a "boiling frog" approach, where consumers may not immediately notice price increases. Upcoming US producer price inflation data will be crucial as tariffs could raise input costs and enhance pricing power for domestic firms. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank's policy discussions suggest a potential shift towards less restrictive measures by summer, with rates expected to approach 2% by year-end.
Markets have reacted to media reports suggesting that the next US administration will impose trade taxes on US consumers gradually, month by month. Remember past media reports on tariff policy have subsequently been denied over social media. This is a boiling frog approach—the price level effect is the same, but consumers may not notice so much. The risk is that repeated tariff increases would encourage repeated profit-led inflation episodes by providing a convenient cover story.
United States Dollar USA Diane Lane Paul Donovan Show more
Finance & Economy, Market Report
09:12 14.01.2025

China's exports surge amid US stockpiling and mixed economic signals

China's December trade data revealed stronger-than-expected exports, driven by US companies stockpiling ahead of potential tax increases from President-elect Trump. Meanwhile, the US consumer remains robust, supported by low unemployment and job creation, despite partisan divides on inflation perceptions.In the UK, real economic data has outperformed expectations, yet increased taxes have fostered a negative narrative among businesses. Additionally, ECB Chief Economist Lane indicated a downward trend for Eurozone interest rates, predicting slower wage growth and inflation by 2025.
China’s December trade data showed even more strength in exports than had been anticipated. This is being attributed to US companies stockpiling ahead of threatened taxes from US President-elect Trump. Such stockpiling may delay the consumer price inflation effects of the taxes (though the narrative of the tax increase is powerful, and may lead to consumer price increases regardless).
Chinese Yuan Euro United States Dollar GBR CHN USA Paul Donovan Show more
Finance & Economy, Market Report
09:15 13.01.2025

Federal Reserve adjusts rate strategy amid global inflation concerns and trade issues

The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a shift towards a more cautious approach to rate cuts, with a focus on following inflation trends. Meanwhile, China's inflation data shows stable consumer prices, while the UK experiences significant deflation in non-food items, suggesting increased consumer spending. Upcoming German trade data may gain political significance amid rising economic nationalism.
The Federal Reserve meeting minutes reflect the rather chaotic swings of view that occur under Fed Chair Powell. After an emergency rate cut without an emergency in September, the Fed has moved to slowing the pace of rate cuts being “appropriate” in December. The basic idea is unchanged— follow inflation down. Concerns were raised about US President-elect Trump’s trade tax and deportation policies in discussions about inflation, but they were not the central focus of the inflation debate.
Chinese Yuan British Pound Sterling Euro United States Dollar Apple Inc. BRC Inc. GBR CHN DEU USA Glen Powell Paul Donovan Donald Trump Show more
Finance & Economy, Market Report
10:05 09.01.2025

insights from the 2024 ub australasia conference on economy and innovation

The UBS Australasia Conference 2024 in Sydney brought together industry leaders, policymakers, and innovators to discuss the impact of productivity, healthcare, and technology on the economy and investment landscape. Featured speakers included UBS's chief economist Paul Donovan and Google’s regional director Renee Lo, among others. The event highlighted key insights and trends shaping the future of various sectors.
Monocle
United States Dollar AUS Tom Hall Raphael Güller Lachlan Shaw William Nicolle Ana Mahony Mario Draghi Renee Lo Fabio Segura Kurt Reiman Claudia Goldin Richard J. Schellbach Paul Donovan Show more
Finance & Economy, Market Report
01:02 06.01.2025

political uncertainty poses risks to global economic growth in 2025

UBS economist Paul Donovan predicts 2025 will be marked by significant political polarization, impacting economic growth. While consumers in developed economies start the year with strong balance sheets and rising incomes, political uncertainty, particularly from U.S. tariffs and immigration policies, poses risks. Markets may struggle to find a middle ground, leading to dramatic economic consequences if they misjudge the political landscape.
FXStreet
United States Dollar USA DEU CHN Paul Donovan Donald Trump Elon Musk Show more
Finance & Economy, Market Report
17:30 02.01.2025

political uncertainty shapes economic outlook for developed markets in 2025

In 2025, economic growth appears stable for developed economies, with rising real incomes and solid consumer balance sheets. However, political uncertainty, particularly from aggressive U.S. tariffs and shifting immigration policies, poses significant risks, potentially leading markets to make drastic miscalculations. As polarization increases, the absence of a middle ground may force markets to choose sides, amplifying the economic fallout if the wrong side is selected.
FXStreet
United States Dollar USA DEU CHN Donald Trump Paul Donovan Elon Musk Show more
Finance & Economy, Market Report
09:32 02.01.2025
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